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Quantifying the invasion probability of genetically modified plants
Christian Damgaard
Abstract
An operative and quantitative methodology for assessing the ecological risk
of a GMP invading a natural habitat is presented. The suggested method evaluates
whether dispersal to a specific habitat may take place and calculates the predicted
probabilities of establishment, using information on dispersal and Bayesian
statistics on data from simple competition experiments. Additionally, the method
allows evaluation of the probability that a native species goes locally extinct
in the invasion process.
Keywords
Genetically modified plants, GMP, GMO, Invasion probability, risk assessment.
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