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Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research
Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, INIA
ISSN: 0718-5820
EISSN: 0718-5839
Vol. 75, No. 3, 2015, pp. 328-333
Bioline Code: cj15044
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 75, No. 3, 2015, pp. 328-333

 en Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering of Spodoptera exigua check for this species in other resources Hübner in regions of China
Zheng, Xia-Lin; Huang, Qing-Cheng; Cao, Wan-Zheng; Lu, Wen; Wang, Guo-Quan; Yu, Shu-Zhong; Yang, Zhen-De & Wang, Xiao-Ping

Abstract

Inferential models are usually used to evaluate the effect of winter warming on range expansion of insects. Generally, correlative approaches used to predict changes in the distributions of organisms are based on the assumption that climatic boundaries are fixed. Spodoptera exigua check for this species in other resources Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) overwinters as larvae or pupae in China regions. To understand the climate change impacts on overwintering of this species in regions of China, CLIMEX and Arc-GIS models were used to predict possible changes of distribution based on temperature. The climate change projection clearly indicated that the northern boundary of overwintering for S. exigua will shift northward from current distribution. Thus, the ongoing winter warming is likely to increase the frequency of S. exigua outbreaks.

Keywords
Global warming; integrated pest management; overwintering regions; population density; range distribution

 
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