Improved calibration of a solid substrate fermentation model

Background: Calibration of dynamic models in biotechnology is challenging. Kinetic models are usually complex and differential equations are highly coupled involving a large number of parameters. In addition, available measurements are scarce and infrequent, and some key variables are often non-measurable. Therefore, effective optimization and statistical analysis methods are crucial to achieve meaningful results. In this research, we apply a metaheuristic scatter search algorithm to calibrate a solid substrate cultivation model. Results: Even though scatter search has shown to be effective for calibrating difficult nonlinear models, we show here that a posteriori analysis can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of the estimation. Conclusions: Sensibility and correlation analysis helped us detect reliability problems and provided suggestions to improve the design of future experiments.

Keywords
Gibberella fujikuroi, gibberellic acid, global optimization, metaheuristics, nonlinear dynamic models, parameter estimation, solid substrate cultivation