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African Population Studies
Union for African Population Studies
ISSN: 0850-5780
Vol. 25, No. s1, 2011, pp. 113-126
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Bioline Code: ep11015
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge
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African Population Studies, Vol. 25, No. s1, 2011, pp. 113-126
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Estimating adult mortality in Zambia using information on survival of parents from surveys
Chisumpa, Vesper H. & Dorrington, Rob
Abstract
The aim of this study is to derive estimates of level of and trend in adult mortality
in Zambia. To do this the study applies the standard orphanhood method to the
data on survivorship of parents from various Zambia Demographic and Health
and Living Conditions Monitoring Surveys to estimate 10q25 and 15q25 for females;
and 10q35 for males, and hence, the probability of a 15 year old dying before age
60 (45q15). The study finds that the orphanhood method captures some of the
trend but fails to provide definitive estimates of mortality. The levels of female
adult mortality between ages 25 and 35 years have remained constant at about
15 per cent from the mid-1990s. The female mortality rate between ages 25 and
40 years has also remained constant, at between 20 per cent and 25 per cent
since 2000. Adult male mortality between ages 35 and 45 years increased in the
mid-1990s and has remained between 20 per cent and 25 per cent from the late
1990s to late 2000s. Adult mortality, 45q15, for both males and females, has
increased over time and has stabilised at about 60 per cent for males and 50 per
cent for females. These adult mortality rates are comparable to estimates from
other sources.
Keywords
Adult mortality; estimation; orphanhood; Zambia
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