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African Population Studies
Union for African Population Studies
ISSN: 0850-5780
Vol. 25, No. 2, 2011, pp. 337-361
Bioline Code: ep11031
Full paper language: English
Document type: Literature Review
Document available free of charge

African Population Studies, Vol. 25, No. 2, 2011, pp. 337-361

 en African urbanization trends and prospects
Bocquier, Philippe & Mukandila, Andrew Kabulu


The paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polynomial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban population is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little variations by regions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic and social development in Africa.

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