African Health Sciences
Makerere University Medical School
Vol. 18, No. 4, 2018, pp. 1214-1225
Bioline Code: hs18129
Full paper language: English
Document type: Study
Document available free of charge
African Health Sciences, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2018, pp. 1214-1225
© Copyright 2018 - Nemetchek et al.
Predictor variables for post-discharge mortality modelling in infants: a protocol development project|
Nemetchek, Brooklyn R; Liang, Li(Danny); Kissoon, Niranjan; Ansermino, J Mark; Kabakyenga, Jerome; Lavoie, Pascal M; Fowler-Kerry, Susan & Wiens, Matthew O
Background: Over two-thirds of the five million annual deaths in children under five occur in infants, mostly in developing
countries and many after hospital discharge. However, there is a lack of understanding of which children are at higher risk based
on early clinical predictors. Early identification of vulnerable infants at high-risk for death post-discharge is important in order
to craft interventional programs.
Objectives: To determine potential predictor variables for post-discharge mortality in infants less than one year of age who are
likely to die after discharge from health facilities in the developing world.
Methods: A two-round modified Delphi process was conducted, wherein a panel of experts evaluated variables selected from
a systematic literature review. Variables were evaluated based on (1) predictive value, (2) measurement reliability, (3) availability,
and (4) applicability in low-resource settings.
Results: In the first round, 18 experts evaluated 37 candidate variables and suggested 26 additional variables. Twenty-seven
variables derived from those suggested in the first round were evaluated by 17 experts during the second round. A final total of
55 candidate variables were retained.
Conclusion: A systematic approach yielded 55 candidate predictor variables to use in devising predictive models for post-discharge mortality in infants in a low-resource setting.
Candidate predictor variables; pediatrics; neonatal; infants; prediction; post-discharge mortality; sepsis