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Markov Chain: A Predictive Model for Manpower Planning
EZUGWU, VO & OLOGUN, S
Abstract
The use of Mathematical models for manpower planning has increased in recent
times for better manpower planning quantitatively. In respect of organizational management,
numerous previous studies have applied Markov chain models in describing title or level
promotions, demotions, recruitments, withdrawals, or changes of different career development
paths to confirm the actual manpower needs of an organization or predict the future manpower
needs. The movements of staff called transitions are usually the consequences of promotions,
transfer between segments or wastage and recruitment into the system. The objective of the
study is to determine the proportions of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from the
various grades and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five
years. In this paper, we studied the academic staff structure of university of Uyo, Nigeria using
Markov chain models. The results showed that there is a steady increase in the number of
Graduate Assistants, Senior Lecturer and Associate professors, while, there is a steady decrease
in the number of Assistant Lecturer, Lecturer II, Lecturer I, and Professor in the next five years.
The model so developed can only be applied when there is no control on recruitment but the
research can be extended to include control on recruitment. The model can also be applied in
school enrollment projection.
Keywords
Markov Chain; Transition Probability Matrix; Manpower Planning; Recruitment; Promotion; Wastage
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