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Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management
World Bank assisted National Agricultural Research Project (NARP) - University of Port Harcourt
ISSN: 1119-8362
Vol. 22, No. 7, 2018, pp. 1071-1076
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Bioline Code: ja18183
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge
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Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, Vol. 22, No. 7, 2018, pp. 1071-1076
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Seasonal Variation of Power Distribution in Niger State of Nigeria using Markov Model with Non-Stationary Transition Probabilities
MOHAMMED, A; ABUBAKAR, UY; JACOB, T & ABDULRAHMAN, S
Abstract
This paper presents the application of Markov chain model with non-stationary transition
probabilities to study the monthly data of the power distribution in Niger state in the wet, Dry-Hot and Hamatten/Dry-Hot seasons. The result indicates an optimal power distribution of over 150,000MWwith probability 0.49 during the
wet season, 0.25 during the hot-dry season and 0.19 in the hot-cold season respectively. The variation of power
distribution directly affects the electricity consumers. Markov chain model could be used as a predictive tool for
determining the power distribution pattern at different seasons in the Study area. These predictions might be used for
the management of (NCC) for effective distribution of megawatts.
Keywords
Markov Chain; Transition probability; Non-stationary; Power Distribution
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© Copyright 2018 - Mohammed et al.
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