en |
WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE MEANS FOR FARMERS IN AFRICA: A TRIPTYCH REVIEW RIGHT PANEL: CLIMATE EXTREMES AND SOCIETY’S RESPONSES, INCLUDING MITIGATION ATTEMPTS AS PART OF PREPAREDNESS OF AFRICAN FARMERS
Stigter, CJ & Ofori, E
Abstract
In this paper in three parts, climate change is approached by dealing with the three
sides from which the danger comes: (i) global warming, (ii) increasing climate
variability, (iii) more (and possibly more severe) meteorological and climatological
extreme events. These are the three panels of this triptych review and the right panel
on climate extremes and society’s responses, including mitigation attempts as part of
preparedness of African farmers, is this part. The occurrence of more (and possibly
more severe) extreme meteorological/climatological events, as another likely
consequence of climate change, is discussed, reviewing the literature and dealing for
Africa with recent droughts and famines. It appears that there is more than sufficient
proof that the numbers of disasters have risen globally, and on average at an
increasing rate, over the last half a century, with more evidence in the later decades.
Extreme hazards have a shorter recurrence time but whether they also have become
more severe cannot be easily determined. This is due to developments in
observations, populations and vulnerabilities and lack of developments in climate
models. Only for increased temperature related disasters, severity has clearly become
larger. However, recent more realistic calculations appear to suggest that there has
been little change in drought over the past 60 years. In physical terms, there is also
little or no evidence of increased severity of floods over the past century. Increasing
farmer preparedness will be an important part of better responses to these conditions.
The traditional response farming as to droughts, floods (annual recession and
recurrent occasional ones), strong winds and other serious disasters should be among
starting points. At the end of this paper, the contributions that tropical agriculture can
make to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) in win-win situations are also dealt with.
Soil carbon sequestration has a higher mitigation potential than emission reductions in
African agriculture, although both may be important. These are best achieved under
management systems with higher carbon density, as well as improved soil
conservation. Agroforestry, assisted natural regeneration, forest rehabilitation, forest
gardens, and improved forest fallow projects should all be eligible under the Clean
Development Mechanism. Throughout the paper text boxes are used that illustrate
local conditions that must be taken into account to understand the
impacts/consequences of climate change for African farmers and how they may cope
with them.
Keywords
Disasters; extreme events; famine; mitigation
|