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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060
EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 105, No. 2, 2010, pp. 179-183
Bioline Code: oc10031
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 105, No. 2, 2010, pp. 179-183

 en The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
Massad, Eduardo; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio & Struchiner, Cláudio José

Abstract

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, where imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

Keywords
influenza A (H1N1), travelers, risk estimation, mathematical models

 
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