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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060
EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 110, No. 2, 2015, pp. 230-234
Bioline Code: oc15028
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 110, No. 2, 2015, pp. 230-234

 en A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
Ribeiro, Ana Freitas; Tengan, Ciléa; Sato, Helena Keico; Spinola, Roberta; Mascheretti, Melissa; França, Ana Cecilia Costa; Port-Carvalho, Marcio; Pereira, Mariza; de Souza, Renato Pereira & Amaku, Marcos

Abstract

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Keywords
yellow fever; vaccination; side-effects; mathematical models; optimisation; risk estimation

 
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