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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060 EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 110, No. 4, 2015, pp. 528-533
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Bioline Code: oc15067
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 110, No. 4, 2015, pp. 528-533
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The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
Morato, Daniela G.; Barreto, Florisneide R.; Braga, José U.; Natividade, Marcio S.; Costa, Maria da ConceiCostação N.; Morato, Vanessa & Teixeira, Maria da Glória Lima Cruz
Abstract
Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control
measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in
the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced
according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction
were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection
technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8
February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified
space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation
diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures,
may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.
Keywords
dengue; epidemiology; epidemic; diffusion; spatiotemporal; trajectory
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