In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its
traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred
in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (
Alouatta
spp)
were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health
policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply
modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (
Alouatta guariba clamitans
) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate
brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation
model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology
predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach
discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be
useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
