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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060
EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 110, No. 7, 2015, pp. 865-876
Bioline Code: oc15119
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 110, No. 7, 2015, pp. 865-876

 en Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys ( Alouatta guariba clamitans check for this species in other resources ) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario S.; Oklander, Luciana I.; Kowalewski, Martín M.; Beldomenico, Pablo M.; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela; Lestani, Eduardo; Desbiez, Arnaud L.J. & Miller, Philip

Abstract

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys ( Alouatta check for this species in other resources spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey ( Alouatta guariba clamitans check for this species in other resources ) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Keywords
conservation medicine; wildlife disease; disease impact; sensitivity analysis

 
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