search
for
 About Bioline  All Journals  Testimonials  Membership  News  Donations


Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060
EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 111, No. 7, 2016, pp. 433-442
Bioline Code: oc16065
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 111, No. 7, 2016, pp. 433-442

 en Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia
Pérez-Flórez, Mauricio; Ocampo, Clara Beatriz; Valderrama-Ardila, Carlos & Alexander, Neal

Abstract

The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.

Keywords
cutaneous leishmaniasis; environmental risk factors; Colombian Andean region; spatial analysis

 
© Copyright 2016 - Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Alternative site location: http://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br

Home Faq Resources Email Bioline
© Bioline International, 1989 - 2017, Site last up-dated on 16-Oct-2017.
Site created and maintained by the Reference Center on Environmental Information, CRIA, Brazil
System hosted by the Internet Data Center of Rede Nacional de Ensino e Pesquisa, RNP, Brazil