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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz
ISSN: 1678-8060 EISSN: 1678-8060
Vol. 111, No. 7, 2016, pp. 433-442
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Bioline Code: oc16065
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge
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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Vol. 111, No. 7, 2016, pp. 433-442
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Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia
Pérez-Flórez, Mauricio; Ocampo, Clara Beatriz; Valderrama-Ardila, Carlos & Alexander, Neal
Abstract
The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in
Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715
rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance: 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis
- conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence
of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis
identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated
with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated.
Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall
and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify
areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.
Keywords
cutaneous leishmaniasis; environmental risk factors; Colombian Andean region; spatial analysis
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