Iran’s energy scenarios on a 20-year vision|
Chaharsooghi, S. K.; Rezaei, M. & Alipour, M.
With the heightened awareness of global
environmental issues of greenhouse gas emissions by fossil
fuels as non-renewable energy resources, the application of
renewable energies (REs) has emerged as one of the most
significant policies in most of the countries throughout the
world. Although Iran is blessed with high potential of RE
resources such as solar, wind, and geothermal, development
of such resources, however, has been neglected due to
the various reasons. Considering the long time needed to
develop and deploy RE resources, a long-term planning is
required in this area. Therefore, applying the scenario
planning method, this research develops four scenarios in
Iran’s 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in
energy consumption and RE generation: green path, standardization,
fossil energy, and non-targeted subsidy.
Developed scenarios are then compared with the government
plan for utilizing REs in 10 % of total electric power
generation in a 20-year vision. Results indicate that standardization
and fossil energy are the most probable scenarios.
Green path is the most optimistic scenario for the
country, suggesting the goal of producing 10 % of total
electricity share through REs could be achievable by 2025.
And the non-targeted subsidy is the most pessimistic and
unexpected scenario for the country.
Energy; Renewable energy; Energy consumption; Scenario planning