Bar-headed geese (
Anser indicus
) is an important migratory goose species group in the Qinghai lake region. Population dynamics of the group provides the foundation data of decision-making in Bar-headed geese protection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was constructed in Qinghai lake region regarding the dynamics with STELLA graphical modeling software. Parameters included in the model described mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigration, emigration and mortality based on long term observation data. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of the periodic time bar-headed geese stay in Qinghai lake. The next 25 years simulated population change results showed that the trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. Meanwhile, the population was simulated assuming calamity strikes in 2010. The model and simulated results of the bar-headed goose population are reliable according to calibrated results using observed data from 2006 to 2008, and the method of modeling bar-headed goose population provides some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region. Finally, suggestions of protection for the bar-headed goose have been proposed based on above results.
