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Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research
Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, INIA
ISSN: 0718-5820
EISSN: 0718-5839
Vol. 74, No. 4, 2014, pp. 404-412
Bioline Code: cj14058
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 74, No. 4, 2014, pp. 404-412

 en The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector. A non-linear agricultural supply model
Ponce, Roberto; Blanco, Maria & Giupponi, Carlo


Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

Climate change; farming model; irrigation; uncertainty

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