Mortality Among Married Men in Rural Kenya and Malawi

Using prospective longitudinal data, this article describes recent changes in the levels of adult mortality among married men aged 20-59 in selected rural areas of Malawi and Kenya, and in the age pattern of their mortality. Sampled areas have, respectively, moderate and high HIV prevalence. The observed annual probability of dying for males interviewed in an initial wave of each study and then reported as deceased in follow-up interviews is 0.031 in Nyanza and 0.016 in Malawi. Compared to life table estimates for equivalent age groups generated from Kenya's 1989 census and Malawi's 1987 census, these results represent a 3-fold increase over 1980s census levels. These changes have reduced life expectancy at age 20 by about 14 years in Nyanza and 7 years in Malawi. Observed mortality is consistent with a younger age of HIV infection in Nyanza. Sample characteristics suggest that these levels underestimate the total effect of AIDS on mortality.