Fertility Levels, Trends and Differentials in Kenya: How does the Own-Children Method Add to our Knowledge of the Transition?|
Opiyo, Collins O. & Levin, Michael J.
The own-children method of fertility estimation tracks temporal changes in fertility
patterns. We revisit the Kenyan fertility transition by applying the method to 1979,
1989 and 1999 censuses, and 1989, 1993, 1998 and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys
data. The method's ability to provide yearly fertility rates for periods preceding each
data source adds enormous knowledge to fertility patterns. For Kenya, these trends go
back through the 1960s. First, the method sheds additional light on the onset of the
transition. Second, the trends highlight major differences in the onset and pace of
fertility decline among regions and key sub-groups. Third, the rates for overlapping
periods provide both internal and external validity checks that heighten confidence in
the overall results. Last, it provides a rare opportunity to evaluate birth history fertility
rates. Taken together, these estimates provide more detail than ever before regarding
fertility patterns in Kenya.
fertility, own-children method, demographic transition