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Using fuzzy logic to generate conditional probabilities in Bayesian belief networks: a case study of ecological assessment
Liu, K.F.-R.; Kuo, J.-Y.; Yeh, K.; Chen, C.-W.; Liang, H.-H. & Sun, Y.-H.
Abstract
The survival of rare animals is an important
concern in an environmental impact assessment. However,
it is very difficult to quantitatively predict the possible
effect that a development project has on rare animals, and
there is a heavy reliance on expert knowledge and judgment.
In order to improve the credibility of expert judgment,
this study uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to
visually represent expert knowledge and to clearly explain
the inference process. For the case study, the primary difficulty
is in determining a large amount of conditional
probabilities in the BBN, because there is a lack of sufficient
data concerning rare animals. Therefore, a new
method that uses fuzzy logic to systematically generate
these probabilities is proposed. The combination of the
BBN and the fuzzy logic system is used to assess the
possible future population status of the Pheasant-tailed
jacana and the associated probabilities, which have been
affected by the construction of the Taiwan High-Speed
Rail. The analysis shows that a restoration program would
successfully preserve the species, because in the restoration
area, the BBN model predicts that there is a 75.49 %
probability that the species will flourish in the future.
Keywords
Pheasant-tailed jacana; Future population status; Expert judgment; Artificial intelligence
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