Inferential models are usually used to evaluate the effect of winter warming on range expansion of insects. Generally,
correlative approaches used to predict changes in the distributions of organisms are based on the assumption that climatic
boundaries are fixed.
Spodoptera exigua
Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) overwinters as larvae or pupae in China regions.
To understand the climate change impacts on overwintering of this species in regions of China, CLIMEX and Arc-GIS
models were used to predict possible changes of distribution based on temperature. The climate change projection clearly
indicated that the northern boundary of overwintering for
S. exigua will shift northward from current distribution. Thus, the
ongoing winter warming is likely to increase the frequency of
S. exigua outbreaks.
