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The Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition
ISSN: 1606-0997
EISSN: 1606-0997
Vol. 25, No. 4, 2007, pp. 469-478
Bioline Code: hn07062
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge

The Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2007, pp. 469-478

 en Adults' Perceived Prevalence of Enteric Fever Predicts Laboratory-validated Incidence of Typhoid Fever in Children
Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita; Pach, Al; Nyamete, Andrew; Ochiai, R. Leon; Kaljee, Linda; Dong, Baiqing; Sur, Dipika; Bhattacharya, S.K.; Santoso, Siti Sapardiyah; Agtini, Magdarina; Memon, Zahid; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Do, Canh Gia; von Seidlein, Lorenz & Clemens, John


This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella check for this species in other resources Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 × reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.

Developing countries; Incidence; Perceptions; Prediction model; Prevalence; Salmonella; Typhoid fever; China; India; Viet Nam; Indonesia; Pakistan

© Copyright 2007 - ICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population Research
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